BUCHANAN, VERNON

RepublicanFEC reportedRepublican candidate · U.S. House · Florida · District 16 · Election 2026 · IncumbentH6FL13148

Overview

Raised: $932.9Kvs $1.8M 2023–2024
Spent: $1Mvs $2.2M 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $936.5Kvs $1M 2023–2024
Debts owed: $0vs $0 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Rating: Lean R
Predicted margin: R+4.3

VotePredictor forecasts this race between Kelly Kirschner (D) and Sydney Gruters (R) as of November 7, 2026, giving the Republican a 79% chance. Vern Buchanan is not one of the two candidates it forecasts. Based on 2 polls of the race, blended with its fundamentals.

The Republican’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	91%
Oct 1, 2026	91%
Oct 6, 2026	92%
Oct 9, 2026	88%
Oct 10, 2026	87%
Oct 16, 2026	87%
Oct 24, 2026	81%
Oct 25, 2026	81%
Oct 31, 2026	81%
Nov 3, 2026	81%
Nov 6, 2026	79%
Nov 7, 2026	79%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review · No open linked indicators

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Nov 5, 2026 · Index refreshed: Nov 5, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Nov 5, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).

No open indicators are linked in the published index. This is not a compliance clearance.

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Florida · District 16
Reported party: Republican
Election year: 2026
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: VERN BUCHANAN FOR CONGRESS (C00412759)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Vern Buchanan? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$293.8K
Unitemized individual contributions$2,555
Other committees$589K
Transfers from affiliates$42.4K
Other receipts$411

Top contributors

VICTORY 2026RepublicanInferred from FEC-reported participants$42.4K3 contributions
ALLEN, DAWNRepublicanDerived from contributions$10.5K3 contributions
ALLEN, RONALD

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$769.1K
Contribution refunds$159.5K
Other disbursements$67K

Largest operating payments

RED RIVER CO, LLC$51.3KFUNDRAISING COMMISSION ALL 2025 · Feb 25, 2026
RED RIVER CO, LLC$22.9KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Jul 18, 2025
RED RIVER CO, LLC$18.8KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Jan 24, 2025
RED RIVER CO, LLC$18KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Apr 17, 2025
RED RIVER CO, LLC$17.9KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Jun 26, 2025
MORTON'S GOURMET MARKET$14.6KEVENT - CATERING · Dec 15, 2025
RED RIVER CO, LLC$14.5KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Sep 24, 2025
RED RIVER CO, LLC$13.8KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · May 21, 2025

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Jan 25	$6,700	$0
Feb 25	$7,453	$0
Mar 25	$43,473	$0
Apr 25	$29,055	$0
May 25	$111,384	$0
Jun 25	$57,472	$0
Jul 25	$11,525	$0
Aug 25	$25	$0
Sep 25	$17,525	$2,500
Oct 25	$2,525	$50,000
Nov 25	$3,025	$0
Dec 25	$40,525	$0
Jan 26	$5,525	$2,000
Feb 26	$0	$3,000
Mar 26	$0	$47,500

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Florida · District 16
Party affiliation: Republican
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: PO BOX 48928 · SARASOTA, Florida, 34230-5928
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

VICTORY 2026C00766972 Joint fundraising participantVERN BUCHANAN FOR CONGRESSC00412759
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1878898Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
VERN BUCHANAN FOR CONGRESSC00412759 Authorized candidateBUCHANAN, VERNONH6FL13148
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
VERN BUCHANAN FOR CONGRESSC00412759 Connected organizationVICTORY 2026Reported name only · no identity match assumed
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 6, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC committee master: reported connected organization / affiliated committee name. This name-only field does not establish an entity identity match. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
VOTE TO ELECT REPUBLICANS NOW PACC00431403 Leadership PAC sponsorBUCHANAN, VERNONH6FL13148
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1779669Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $159,503
Debts owed by committees: $0
Last report: PRE-GENERAL

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hash2968ddfc271f25726882d0413458d1379632ed92ccf45b580046246311c40433

View official FEC record

BUCHANAN, VERNON

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast