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New records for MCGUIRE, JOHN J. MR. III.2025–2026 election cycle

Records from this candidate’s linked campaign committees.

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MCGUIRE, JOHN J. MR. III

RepublicanFEC reportedRepublican candidate · U.S. House · Virginia · District 5 · Election 2026 · ChallengerH0VA07133

Overview

Raised: $2.4M
Spent: $2.1M
Cash on hand: $382.1K
Debts owed: $210.4K

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Chance of winning: 83%
Rating: Lean R
Predicted margin: R+5.0

VotePredictor gives John J. McGuire III a 83% chance of winning as of October 29, 2026. Based on 3 polls of the race, blended with its fundamentals.

John J. McGuire III’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	79%
Oct 1, 2026	83%
Oct 6, 2026	82%
Oct 9, 2026	88%
Oct 10, 2026	87%
Oct 16, 2026	87%
Oct 24, 2026	83%
Oct 25, 2026	83%
Oct 29, 2026	83%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review indicators

3 open

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Oct 18, 2026 · Index refreshed: Oct 18, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Oct 18, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).

1 receipt eligibility · 2 integrity · 0 fundraising patterns

Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $143,121
TARGETED VICTORY received 72.6% of positive itemized operating spending in MCGUIRE FOR VIRGINIA's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Jun 5, 2026
LLC or partnership eligibility →Associated amount: $1,000
Reported contributor appears to be an LLC or partnership. Verify permissible tax status, written eligibility notice, member or partner attribution, and contribution limits.
Evidence date: May 1, 2026
Financial integrity review →Associated amount: $0
The FEC issued 2 notice(s) to MCGUIRE FOR VIRGINIA about reports it had not filed, most recently on 2026-07-07, and no filing covering those periods appears in the loaded archive.
Evidence date: Jul 7, 2026

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

View all 3 open indicators →

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Virginia · District 5
Reported party: Republican
Election year: 2026
Race status: Challenger
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: MCGUIRE FOR VIRGINIA (C00856831)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding John J. McGuire III? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$1M
Unitemized individual contributions$552.2K
Other committees$575.6K
Party committees$250

Top contributors

MCGUIRE VICTORY FUNDRepublicanInferred from FEC-reported participants$256.7K20 contributions
ALLRED, DOUGLASRepublicanDerived from contributions$43K2 contributions
LONG, CHARLES

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$1.9M
Contribution refunds$89.8K
Other disbursements$127K

Largest transfers and contributions to committees

AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEEMixed activity · 46% Democratic / 54% RepublicanInferred from activity$15K

All distributions →

Largest operating payments

HOLTZMAN VOGEL JOSEFIAK$60.8KLEGAL · Jul 24, 2025
TARGETED VICTORY$59.2KFUNDRAISING · Jun 5, 2026
TARGETED VICTORY$46.2KFUNDRAISING · Jun 5, 2026
TARGETED VICTORY$37.8KFUNDRAISING · Jun 5, 2026
TARGETED VICTORY$31.8KFUNDRAISING · Jan 30, 2026

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

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Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Virginia · District 5
Party affiliation: Republican
Race status: Challenger
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026
Registered address: 11357 NUCKOLS ROAD STE 156 · GLEN ALLEN, Virginia, 23059
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

MCGUIRE VICTORY FUNDC00856856 Joint fundraising participantMCGUIRE FOR VIRGINIAC00856831
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1875055Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
AMERICAN BATTLEGROUND FUNDC00857649 Joint fundraising participantMCGUIRE FOR VIRGINIAC00856831
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1952426Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
STRATEGIC DEFENSE FUNDC00956862 Joint fundraising participantMCGUIRE FOR VIRGINIAC00856831
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1999038Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
MCGUIRE FOR VIRGINIAC00856831 Authorized candidateMCGUIRE, JOHN J. MR. IIIH0VA07133
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
MCGUIRE RECOUNT COMMITTEEC00900118 Authorized candidateMCGUIRE, JOHN J. MR. IIIH0VA07133
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
MCGUIRE FOR VIRGINIAC00856831 Connected organizationMCGUIRE VICTORY FUNDReported name only · no identity match assumed
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 6, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC committee master: reported connected organization / affiliated committee name. This name-only field does not establish an entity identity match. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $89,795
Debts owed by committees: $210,434
Last report: TERMINATION REPORT

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hashf8e4cfe05769227223ed723845a836ec0a1d81b31b608a198b1464e85640aa23

View official FEC record

Month	Raised	Spent
Jan 25	$3,500	$0
Feb 25	$20,350	$0
Mar 25	$123,683	$0
Apr 25	$23,845	$0
May 25	$11,745	$0
Jun 25	$96,235	$0
Jul 25	$6,835	$15,000
Aug 25	$33,935	$38,000
Sep 25	$44,831	$7,000
Oct 25	$18,425	$0
Nov 25	$27,480	$0
Dec 25	$61,071	$0
Jan 26	$23,758	$0
Feb 26	$63,312	$0
Mar 26	$83,406	$36,000
Apr 26	$54,570	$0
May 26	$29,033	$500
Jun 26	$128,273	$0
Jul 26	$16,528	$0

MCGUIRE, JOHN J. MR. III

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest transfers and contributions to committees

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast