GONZALES, ERNEST ANTHONY TONY II

RepublicanFEC reportedRepublican candidate · U.S. House · Texas · District 23 · Election 2026 · IncumbentH0TX35015

Overview

Raised: $2.3Mvs $5.9M 2023–2024
Spent: $3.5Mvs $4.8M 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $190.5Kvs $1.5M 2023–2024
Debts owed: $0vs $126.9K 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Rating: Lean R
Predicted margin: R+4.1

VotePredictor forecasts this race between Katy Padilla Stout (D) and Brandon Herrera (R) as of November 12, 2026, giving the Republican a 78% chance. Tony Gonzales is not one of the two candidates it forecasts. Based on 2 polls of the race, blended with its fundamentals.

The Republican’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	90%
Oct 1, 2026	90%
Oct 6, 2026	90%
Oct 9, 2026	85%
Oct 10, 2026	85%
Oct 16, 2026	84%
Oct 21, 2026	81%
Oct 24, 2026	79%
Oct 25, 2026	80%
Oct 31, 2026	78%
Nov 2, 2026	78%
Nov 3, 2026	78%
Nov 6, 2026	76%
Nov 8, 2026	78%
Nov 12, 2026	78%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review indicators

5 open

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Nov 5, 2026 · Index refreshed: Nov 5, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Nov 5, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).

1 receipt eligibility · 4 integrity · 0 fundraising patterns

Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $108,195
LILLY & COMPANY received 70.8% of positive itemized operating spending in TONY GONZALES FOR CONGRESS's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Mar 3, 2025
Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $101,125
LILLY & COMPANY received 58.3% of positive itemized operating spending in TONY GONZALES FOR CONGRESS's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Sep 8, 2025
Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $82,558
LILLY & COMPANY received 64.9% of positive itemized operating spending in TONY GONZALES FOR CONGRESS's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Jun 2, 2025
Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $18,950

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Texas · District 23
Reported party: Republican
Election year: 2026
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: TONY GONZALES FOR CONGRESS (C00706614)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Tony Gonzales? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$830K
Unitemized individual contributions$29.5K
Other committees$474.6K
Transfers from affiliates$834.6K
Other receipts$102.2K

Top contributors

TONY GONZALES VICTORY FUND98% Republican-aligned activity · 1% unclassifiedInferred from activity$794K35 contributions
HISPANIC LEADERSHIP TRUST PARTNERSHIP99% Republican-aligned activityInferred from activity$35.5K4 contributions
BOWLING, RANDALL

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$3M
Contribution refunds$501.5K
Other disbursements$43.4K

Largest operating payments

SRCP MEDIA$233.6KMEDIA · Feb 23, 2026
SRCP MEDIA$213KMEDIA · Feb 17, 2026
SRCP MEDIA$175.2KMEDIA · Feb 10, 2026
THE SYNAPSE GROUP$89KVOTER CANVASSING SVC · Feb 7, 2026
THE SYNAPSE GROUP$88KVOTER CANVASSING SVC · Feb 23, 2026
THOMAS GRAPHICS$69.1KPRINTING/POSTAGE · Feb 23, 2026
LILLY & COMPANY$35.7KFINANCE CONSULTING/PRINTING/POSTAGE · Mar 5, 2026
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES$30KSURVEY RESEARCH · Feb 16, 2026
LEX POLITICA$25.4K

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Jan 25	$10,054	$0
Feb 25	$219,155	$0
Mar 25	$210,204	$0
Apr 25	$126,423	$0
May 25	$95,391	$0
Jun 25	$216,071	$0
Jul 25	$85,551	$0
Aug 25	$34,383	$0
Sep 25	$58,370	$0
Oct 25	$70,438	$0
Nov 25	$55,951	$3,125
Dec 25	$41,750	$0
Jan 26	$47,853	$0
Feb 26	$374,427	$0
Mar 26	$12,714	$70,000

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Texas · District 23
Party affiliation: Republican
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: PO BOX 700442 · SAN ANTONIO, Texas, 78270
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

TONY GONZALES VICTORY FUNDC00756080 Joint fundraising participantTONY GONZALES FOR CONGRESSC00706614
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1726157Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
HISPANIC LEADERSHIP TRUST PARTNERSHIPC00816108 Joint fundraising participantTONY GONZALES FOR CONGRESSC00706614
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1890063Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
SCALISE LEADERSHIP FUND 2024C00857144 Joint fundraising participantTONY GONZALES FOR CONGRESSC00706614
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1788304Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
LEAN FORWARD AMERICAC00930396 Joint fundraising participantTONY GONZALES FOR CONGRESSC00706614
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1930604Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
TONY GONZALES FOR CONGRESSC00706614 Authorized candidateGONZALES, ERNEST ANTHONY TONY IIH0TX35015
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $501,508
Debts owed by committees: $0
Last report: PRE-GENERAL

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hash0d442ace8f47ede1ef394edb232206dc7f82e4ed9196fba93bb5b0328b1ec312

View official FEC record

GONZALES, ERNEST ANTHONY TONY II

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast