ELLZEY, JOHN KEVIN SR.

RepublicanFEC reportedRepublican candidate · U.S. House · Texas · District 6 · Election 2026 · IncumbentH8TX06266

Overview

Raised: $5.5Mvs $6.9M 2023–2024
Spent: $4Mvs $6.4M 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $2.6Mvs $1.1M 2023–2024
Debts owed: $0vs $0 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Chance of winning: 99%
Rating: Safe R
Predicted margin: R+17.0

VotePredictor gives Jake Ellzey a 99% chance of winning as of November 15, 2026. No polls of the race: based on the district's lean, incumbency and the national environment, with published race ratings.

Jake Ellzey’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	99%
Nov 15, 2026	99%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review indicators

3 open

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Nov 5, 2026 · Index refreshed: Nov 5, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Nov 5, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).

1 receipt eligibility · 1 integrity · 1 fundraising patterns

Fundraising pattern for review →Cluster total: $18,300
Multiple reported donors associated with the same normalized employer gave to this recipient on one date. Repeated amounts and concentration within the loaded cycle warrant a review of possible fundraising activity. The pattern does not establish a bundler, coordination or wrongdoing.
Evidence date: Mar 26, 2026
Foreign-address eligibility →Associated amount: $1,000
The filing uses FEC foreign-address code ZZ. A foreign address does not establish foreign-national status; verify eligibility without inferring citizenship from geography.
Evidence date: Jul 17, 2025
Financial integrity review →Associated amount: $0
The FEC issued 1 notice(s) to JAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESS about reports it had not filed, most recently on 2026-06-01, and no filing covering those periods appears in the loaded archive.
Evidence date: Jun 1, 2026

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

View all 3 open indicators →

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Texas · District 6
Reported party: Republican
Election year: 2026
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: JAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESS (C00770438)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Jake Ellzey? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$1.4M
Unitemized individual contributions$472.8K
Other committees$1M
Transfers from affiliates$2.6M
Other receipts$63K

Top contributors

SERVICE AND HONORRepublicanInferred from FEC-reported participants$2.1M29 contributions
JAKE ELLZEY VICTORY FUNDRepublicanInferred from FEC-reported participants$275.4K13 contributions

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$3.4M
Contribution refunds$97.4K
Other disbursements$498.7K

Largest transfers and contributions to committees

AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEEMixed activity · 46% Democratic / 54% RepublicanInferred from activity$2,667

All distributions →

Largest operating payments

FLEXPOINT CAMPAIGNS$59.7KADVERTISING · Jan 30, 2026
CATALYST ADVISORS GROUP LLC$48.8KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Mar 2, 2026
CATALYST ADVISORS GROUP LLC$48.8KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Feb 13, 2026
CATALYST ADVISORS GROUP LLC$48.8KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Feb 13, 2026
RAGNAR RESEARCH PARTNERS$39KSURVEY RESEARCH · Jan 5, 2026

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Jan 25	$29,443	$0
Feb 25	$243,813	$0
Mar 25	$453,997	$90,000
Apr 25	$49,063	$0
May 25	$226,371	-$2,000
Jun 25	$311,229	$0
Jul 25	$57,878	$2,000
Aug 25	$147,440	$0
Sep 25	$263,861	$0
Oct 25	$67,373	$50,000
Nov 25	$144,736	$2,000
Dec 25	$191,512	$0
Jan 26	$26,796	$102,000
Feb 26	$46,678	$0
Mar 26	$363,233	$2,500
Apr 26	$53,999	$53,000
May 26	$365,576	$1,000
Jun 26	$360,734	$5,500

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Texas · District 6
Party affiliation: Republican
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: 791 HWY 77 N · STE-C #258 · WAXAHACHIE, Texas, 75164
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

JAKE ELLZEY VICTORY FUNDC00791012 Joint fundraising participantJAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESSC00770438
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1541084Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
SERVICE AND HONORC00825281 Joint fundraising participantJAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESSC00770438
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1629509Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
7TH INNING STRETCHC00884783 Joint fundraising participantJAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESSC00770438
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1806786Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
AMERICAN PATRIOTSC00928028 Joint fundraising participantJAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESSC00770438
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1926776Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
JAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESSC00770438 Authorized candidateELLZEY, JOHN KEVIN SR.H8TX06266
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
JAKE ELLZEY FOR CONGRESSC00770438 Connected organizationJAKE ELLZEY VICTORY FUNDReported name only · no identity match assumed
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 6, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC committee master: reported connected organization / affiliated committee name. This name-only field does not establish an entity identity match. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
31 DAYS PACC00786368 Leadership PAC sponsorELLZEY, JOHN KEVIN SR.H8TX06266
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1927326Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $97,424
Debts owed by committees: $0
Last report: PRE-GENERAL

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hashef25d367b4fb141bde79694ee88db49370fa9e1e6252f3dc3e674346fc430b06

View official FEC record

ELLZEY, JOHN KEVIN SR.

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest transfers and contributions to committees

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Race forecast

Money network