NOLLEY, PAUL

DemocraticFEC reportedDemocratic candidate · U.S. House · Illinois · District 16 · Election 2026 · ChallengerH6IL16108

Overview

Raised: $639.2K
Spent: $580.2K
Cash on hand: $59.1K
Debts owed: $0

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Chance of winning: 1%
Rating: Safe R
Predicted margin: R+16.3

VotePredictor gives Paul Nolley a 1% chance of winning as of October 29, 2026. No polls of the race: based on the district's lean, incumbency and the national environment, with published race ratings.

Paul Nolley’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	1%
Oct 29, 2026	1%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review · No open linked indicators

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Oct 18, 2026 · Index refreshed: Oct 18, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Oct 18, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).

No open indicators are linked in the published index. This is not a compliance clearance.

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Illinois · District 16
Reported party: Democratic
Election year: 2026
Race status: Challenger
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: NOLLEY FOR CONGRESS (C00900399)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Paul Nolley? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$370.4K
Unitemized individual contributions$166.4K
Other committees$96.7K
Party committees$4,000
Candidate contributions$1,709
Other receipts$1

Top contributors

ACTBLUEDemocraticCurated classification$9,0445 contributions
WEIBEL, KATHRYNDemocraticDerived from contributions$7,2622 contributions
BAY, RANDALL

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$579.2K
Contribution refunds$850
Other disbursements$76

Largest operating payments

GOODMAN CAMPAIGNS LLC$9,399DIGITAL FUNDRAISING SERVICES · Apr 7, 2026
GOODMAN CAMPAIGNS LLC$8,683DIGITAL FUNDRAISING SERVICES · Jun 4, 2026
GOODMAN CAMPAIGNS LLC$5,793DIGITAL FUNDRAISING SERVICES · May 7, 2026
PUBLIC POLICY POLLING$5,500POLLING & RESEARCH SERVICES · Apr 30, 2026
GUSTO PAYROLL SERVICES$4,886PAYROLL - SEE MEMOS · Jun 30, 2026
GUSTO PAYROLL SERVICES$4,345PAYROLL - SEE MEMOS · May 29, 2026
GUSTO PAYROLL SERVICES$4,345PAYROLL - SEE MEMOS · Jun 15, 2026
GUSTO PAYROLL SERVICES$4,345PAYROLL - SEE MEMOS · May 15, 2026

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Mar 25	$1,765	$0
Apr 25	$4,052	$0
May 25	$5,282	$0
Jun 25	$2,190	$0
Jul 25	$624	$0
Aug 25	$1,100	$0
Sep 25	$1,250	$0
Oct 25	$1,300	$0
Nov 25	$10,083	$0
Dec 25	$6,050	$0
Jan 26	$8,076	$0
Feb 26	$13,278	$0
Mar 26	$77,521	$0
Apr 26	$28,686	$0
May 26	$28,783	$0
Jun 26	$51,911	$0

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Illinois · District 16
Party affiliation: Democratic
Race status: Challenger
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026
Registered address: 4245 GLOUCESTER RD · ROSCOE, Illinois, 61073
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

NOLLEY FOR CONGRESSC00900399 Authorized candidateNOLLEY, PAULH6IL16108
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Mar 18, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $850
Debts owed by committees: $0
Last report: PRE-GENERAL

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hasha3175ec1a0ef1738ad4d329af15fd6a87e874a79706a9075b79fdaabe6f143f0

View official FEC record

NOLLEY, PAUL

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

FEC-reported relationships

Race forecast