DAVIS, PAUL R DR. JR

DemocraticFEC reportedDemocratic candidate · U.S. House · Illinois · District 15 · Election 2026 · ChallengerH6IL15100

Overview

Raised: $86.7K
Spent: $83.6K
Cash on hand: $3,113
Debts owed: $0

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Sep 30, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Rating: Safe R
Predicted margin: R+33.2

VotePredictor forecasts this race between Jennifer Todd (D) and Mary Miller (R) as of November 4, 2026, giving the Republican a 99% chance. Paul R Davis is not one of the two candidates it forecasts. No polls of the race: based on the district's lean, incumbency and the national environment, with published race ratings.

The Democrat’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	1%
Nov 4, 2026	1%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review indicators

2 open

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Oct 18, 2026 · Index refreshed: Oct 18, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Oct 18, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).

0 receipt eligibility · 2 integrity · 0 fundraising patterns

Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $27,667
DAVIS, PAUL RODGER DR. JR. received 89.1% of positive itemized operating spending in PAUL R DAVIS FOR CENTRAL IL's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Sep 24, 2025
Financial integrity review →Associated amount: $0
The FEC issued 2 notice(s) to PAUL R DAVIS FOR CENTRAL IL about reports it had not filed, most recently on 2026-05-05, and no filing covering those periods appears in the loaded archive.
Evidence date: May 5, 2026

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

View all 2 open indicators →

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Illinois · District 15
Reported party: Democratic
Election year: 2026
Race status: Challenger
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: PAUL R DAVIS FOR CENTRAL IL (C00909010)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Paul R Davis? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$19.4K
Unitemized individual contributions$13.7K
Party committees$800
Candidate contributions$52.8K

Top contributors

DAVIS, PAUL RODGER DR. JR.$60.3K43 contributions
CROCKER, KARIN DR.DemocraticDerived from contributions$2,98713 contributions
WATTSBUSH, JUSTINDemocraticDerived from contributions$1,4007 contributions

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$83.6K

Largest operating payments

MAILING METHODS$10.1KPOST CARD MAILING · Feb 3, 2026
DAVIS, PAUL RODGER DR. JR.$7,500IN-KIND - POLITICAL CONSULTANT BILLY POLLINA · Sep 9, 2025
HIGHLANDER POLITICAL STRATEGIES$7,435POLITICAL TEXTING - WIRE TRANSFER FROM CEFCU · Mar 4, 2026
DAVIS, PAUL RODGER DR. JR.$6,732IN-KIND - GIBSON PRINTING MERCH · Aug 7, 2025
DAVIS, PAUL RODGER DR. JR.$5,000IN-KIND - BILLY POLLINA POLITICAL CONSULTANT · Oct 31, 2025
DAVIS, PAUL RODGER DR. JR.$4,576IN-KIND - GIBSON PRINTING MERCH · Sep 19, 2025
MOW PRINTING$2,825YARD SIGNS · Jan 15, 2026
HIGHLANDER POLITICAL STRATEGIES$2,563CAMPAIGN TEXT SERVICES · Feb 18, 2026
DAVIS, PAUL RODGER DR. JR.$2,500IN-KIND - BILLY POLLINA POLITICAL CONSULTANT · Oct 7, 2025

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Jun 25	$2,059	$0
Jul 25	$2,812	$0
Aug 25	$12,503	$0
Sep 25	$14,353	$0
Oct 25	$10,399	$0
Nov 25	$3,018	$0
Dec 25	$813	$0
Jan 26	$13,607	$0
Feb 26	$4,440	$0
Mar 26	$7,930	$0

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Illinois · District 15
Party affiliation: Democratic
Race status: Challenger
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026
Registered address: 106 TESSY LN · COLLINSVILLE, Illinois, 62234
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

PAUL R DAVIS FOR CENTRAL ILC00909010 Authorized candidateDAVIS, PAUL R DR. JRH6IL15100
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jun 1, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026
Contribution refunds: $0
Debts owed by committees: $0
Last report: OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hash82f62e2f4d1ddef2462779b15ecf7f5074addd9fde469b7898e38c3baa12e6f1

View official FEC record

DAVIS, PAUL R DR. JR

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Race forecast

Money network