DOWNING, TROY

RepublicanFEC reportedRepublican candidate · U.S. House · Montana · District 2 · Election 2026 · IncumbentH4MT02098

Overview

Raised: $2.7Mvs $2.9M 2023–2024
Spent: $2.1Mvs $2.8M 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $746.6Kvs $111.5K 2023–2024
Debts owed: $2Mvs $1M 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Chance of winning: 99%
Rating: Safe R
Predicted margin: R+21.6

VotePredictor gives Troy Downing a 99% chance of winning as of November 11, 2026. Based on 2 polls of the race, blended with its fundamentals.

Troy Downing’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	99%
Nov 11, 2026	99%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review indicators

1 open

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Nov 5, 2026 · Index refreshed: Nov 5, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Nov 5, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).

0 receipt eligibility · 1 integrity · 0 fundraising patterns

Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $136,524
TARGETED VICTORY LLC received 53.0% of positive itemized operating spending in TROY DOWNING FOR CONGRESS's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Aug 13, 2025

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

View all 1 open indicators →

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Montana · District 2
Reported party: Republican
Election year: 2026
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: TROY DOWNING FOR CONGRESS (C00855288)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Troy Downing? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$1M
Unitemized individual contributions$571K
Other committees$905.4K
Transfers from affiliates$267.4K
Other receipts$2,000

Top contributors

DOWNING VICTORY FUNDRepublicanInferred from FEC-reported participants$267.4K18 contributions
MENHOLT, DENNY97% RepublicanDerived from contributions$14K2 contributions
ARMSTRONG, BRIAN

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$2M
Contribution refunds$9,041
Other disbursements$123.5K

Largest operating payments

TARGETED VICTORY LLC$133.1KDIGITAL FUNDRAISING · Jan 5, 2026
TARGETED VICTORY LLC$124KDIGITAL FUNDRAISING · Apr 1, 2026
TARGETED VICTORY LLC$89KDIGITAL FUNDRAISING · Apr 1, 2025
TARGETED VICTORY LLC$85.7KDIGITAL FUNDRAISING · Jul 1, 2025
TARGETED VICTORY LLC$40.3KDIGITAL FUNDRAISING · Oct 2, 2025
H2 CAPITAL CONSULTING LLC$37.7KEVENT SITE RENTAL/CATERING · Jun 11, 2025
PT STRATEGY LLC$35KPOLITICAL STRATEGY CONSULTING · Jan 3, 2025
H2 CAPITAL CONSULTING LLC$28KEVENT SITE RENTAL/CATERING · Apr 24, 2025

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Jan 25	$11,264	$0
Feb 25	$8,530	$0
Mar 25	$67,718	$1,500
Apr 25	$31,880	$0
May 25	$12,107	$0
Jun 25	$63,998	$1,000
Jul 25	$27,010	$0
Aug 25	$35,201	$1,000
Sep 25	$141,153	$0
Oct 25	$19,507	$0
Nov 25	$20,649	$0
Dec 25	$66,193	$35,000
Jan 26	$37,697	$37,000
Feb 26	$75,403	$0
Mar 26	$51,691	$48,000
Apr 26	$40,679	$0
May 26	$56,838	$0
Jun 26	$169,521	$0

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Montana · District 2
Party affiliation: Republican
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: PO BOX 322 · HELENA, Montana, 59624
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

DOWNING VICTORY FUNDC00882811 Joint fundraising participantTROY DOWNING FOR CONGRESSC00855288
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1819866Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
TROY DOWNING FOR CONGRESSC00855288 Authorized candidateDOWNING, TROYH4MT02098
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
TROY DOWNING FOR CONGRESSC00855288 Connected organizationWAR VETERANS FUND 2024Reported name only · no identity match assumed
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 6, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC committee master: reported connected organization / affiliated committee name. This name-only field does not establish an entity identity match. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $9,041
Debts owed by committees: $1,985,000
Last report: PRE-GENERAL

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hashba12c2329590724ca6fc5bfa5ad053d08c801d010c584d987ed7017c09df6a0c

View official FEC record

DOWNING, TROY

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast