CHALIFOUX, THOMAS E. COLONEL JR.

RepublicanFEC reportedRepublican candidate · U.S. House · Florida · District 9 · Election 2026 · ChallengerH4FL09182

Overview

Raised: $3.2Mvs $2.7M 2023–2024
Spent: $3.7Mvs $2.1M 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $71.8Kvs $603.2K 2023–2024
Debts owed: $3.8Mvs $2.5M 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Sep 30, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Rating: Lean R
Predicted margin: R+4.0

VotePredictor forecasts this race between Darren Soto (D) and Dan Green (R) as of November 9, 2026, giving the Republican a 77% chance. Thomas E. Colonel Chalifoux, Jr. is not one of the two candidates it forecasts. Based on 2 polls of the race, blended with its fundamentals.

The Republican’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	90%
Oct 1, 2026	90%
Oct 6, 2026	89%
Oct 10, 2026	89%
Oct 16, 2026	89%
Oct 24, 2026	79%
Oct 25, 2026	78%
Oct 31, 2026	77%
Nov 3, 2026	77%
Nov 6, 2026	75%
Nov 8, 2026	77%
Nov 9, 2026	77%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review indicators

2 open

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Nov 5, 2026 · Index refreshed: Nov 5, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Nov 5, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).

0 receipt eligibility · 2 integrity · 0 fundraising patterns

Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $507,332
SMART MEDIA GROUP LLC received 62.7% of positive itemized operating spending in CHALIFOUX FOR CONGRESS's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Aug 11, 2026
Financial integrity review →Associated amount: $0
The FEC issued 2 notice(s) to CHALIFOUX FOR CONGRESS about reports it had not filed, most recently on 2026-04-16, and no filing covering those periods appears in the loaded archive.
Evidence date: Apr 16, 2026

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

View all 2 open indicators →

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Florida · District 9
Reported party: Republican
Election year: 2026
Race status: Challenger
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: CHALIFOUX FOR CONGRESS (C00869727)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Thomas E. Colonel Chalifoux, Jr.? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$50.1K
Unitemized individual contributions$34.3K
Candidate contributions$423
Candidate loans$3M
Other receipts$66.1K

Top contributors

CHALIFOUX, THOMAS EUGENE COL.$2.3M2 contributions
CHALIFOUX, THOMAS EUGENE COL.$754.1K16 contributions
CHALIFOUX, NILESRepublicanDerived from contributions$7,0001 contribution
CHALIFOUX, DEBBE

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$2M
Loan repayments$1.7M
Contribution refunds$1,984
Other disbursements$2,500

Largest operating payments

CHALIFOUX, THOMAS EUGENE COL.$750KSep 11, 2026
CHALIFOUX, THOMAS EUGENE COL.$600.5KApr 9, 2025
CHALIFOUX, THOMAS EUGENE COL.$250KSep 11, 2026
SMART MEDIA GROUP LLC$209.1KTV ADVERTISING · Jul 16, 2026
SMART MEDIA GROUP LLC$208.2KTV ADVERTISING · Aug 6, 2026
SMART MEDIA GROUP LLC$208.2KTV ADVERTISING · Aug 3, 2026
SMART MEDIA GROUP LLC$207.9KTV ADVERTISING · Jul 24, 2026
CHALIFOUX, THOMAS EUGENE COL.$96.3K

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Apr 25	$0	$600,533
Sep 25	$2,000,000	$0
Oct 25	$0	$1,304
Dec 25	$0	$11,060
Mar 26	$260,300	$0
Apr 26	$5	$0
May 26	$754,284	$0
Jun 26	$33,496	$0
Jul 26	$2,694	$0
Aug 26	$1,396	$0
Sep 26	$0	$1,099,994

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Florida · District 9
Party affiliation: Republican
Race status: Challenger
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: 14108 SNEAD CIRCLE · ORLANDO, Florida, 32837
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

CHALIFOUX FOR CONGRESSC00869727 Authorized candidateCHALIFOUX, THOMAS E. COLONEL JR.H4FL09182
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026
Contribution refunds: $1,984
Debts owed by committees: $3,812,816
Last report: OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hash613ca4b24d002fb9d9f8b261c31594a61bbeaedf7c207ba209339a25cc70e9c0

View official FEC record

CHALIFOUX, THOMAS E. COLONEL JR.

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast