LINCOLN, KEVIN J II

RepublicanFEC reportedRepublican candidate · U.S. House · California · District 13 · Election 2026 · ChallengerH4CA09093

Overview

Raised: $3Mvs $2.3M 2023–2024
Spent: $2.5Mvs $2.3M 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $448.4Kvs $24.1K 2023–2024
Debts owed: $25.6Kvs $15.3K 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Chance of winning: 5%
Rating: Safe D
Predicted margin: D+6.9

VotePredictor gives Kevin Lincoln a 5% chance of winning as of November 10, 2026. No polls of the race: based on the district's lean, incumbency and the national environment, with published race ratings.

Kevin Lincoln’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	14%
Oct 1, 2026	15%
Oct 6, 2026	14%
Oct 10, 2026	13%
Oct 16, 2026	13%
Oct 24, 2026	12%
Oct 25, 2026	7%
Oct 26, 2026	5%
Oct 31, 2026	5%
Nov 3, 2026	5%
Nov 6, 2026	4%
Nov 8, 2026	5%
Nov 10, 2026	5%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review indicators

3 open

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Nov 5, 2026 · Index refreshed: Nov 5, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Nov 5, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).

1 receipt eligibility · 2 integrity · 0 fundraising patterns

Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $164,425
TARGETED VICTORY received 66.4% of positive itemized operating spending in KEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESS's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Dec 24, 2025
Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $133,237
TARGETED VICTORY received 53.6% of positive itemized operating spending in KEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESS's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Mar 12, 2026
LLC or partnership eligibility →Associated amount: $1,000
Reported contributor appears to be an LLC or partnership. Verify permissible tax status, written eligibility notice, member or partner attribution, and contribution limits.
Evidence date: Jun 1, 2026

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

View all 3 open indicators →

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · California · District 13
Reported party: Republican
Election year: 2026
Race status: Challenger
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: KEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESS (C00845826)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$1.1M
Unitemized individual contributions$608.4K
Other committees$339.3K
Transfers from affiliates$920.6K
Other receipts$68

Largest itemized receipts

GROW THE MAJORITY99% Republican-aligned activity · 0% unclassifiedInferred from activity$96.7KMar 31, 2026
GROW THE MAJORITY99% Republican-aligned activity · 0% unclassifiedInferred from activity$93.1KJun 29, 2026
GROW THE MAJORITY99% Republican-aligned activity · 0% unclassifiedInferred from activity

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$2.4M
Contribution refunds$39.8K
Other disbursements$25.9K

Largest operating payments

ONMESSAGE INC.$80KMEDIA BUY · May 11, 2026
ONMESSAGE INC.$80KMEDIA BUY · Apr 28, 2026
TARGETED VICTORY$62.3KDIGITAL CONSULTING, EMAILS AND TEXT MESSAGES · Nov 19, 2025
RIVIERA$51.4KPRINTING, MAILING AND POSTAGE · May 7, 2026
RIVIERA$48KPRINTING, MAILING AND POSTAGE · Jun 2, 2026
TARGETED VICTORY$47.5KEMAILS AND TEXT MESSAGES · Dec 4, 2025
TARGETED VICTORY$45.9KDIGITAL CONSULTING, EMAILS AND TEXT MESSAGES · May 21, 2026
TARGETED VICTORY$44.8KDIGITAL CONSULTING, EMAILS AND TEXT MESSAGES · Jan 2, 2026

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Dec 24	$16	$0
Jan 25	$157	$0
Feb 25	$1,393	$0
Mar 25	$248	$0
Apr 25	$223	$0
May 25	-$101	$0
Jun 25	$78	$0
Jul 25	$45,500	$0
Aug 25	$64,030	$0
Sep 25	$42,651	$0
Oct 25	$59,472	$0
Nov 25	$22,134	$0
Dec 25	$42,598	$0
Jan 26	$19,580	$0
Feb 26	$26,611	$0
Mar 26	$459,613	$500
Apr 26	$69,418	$0
May 26	$97,034	$0
Jun 26	$445,752	$1,000

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: California · District 13
Party affiliation: Republican
Race status: Challenger
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: 5631 WESTCHESTER CIRCLE · STOCKTON, California, 95219
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

SCALISE LEADERSHIP FUND 2024C00857144 Joint fundraising participantKEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESSC00845826
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1788304Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
GROW THE MAJORITYC00858373 Joint fundraising participantKEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESSC00845826
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 2004179Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
EMMER MAJORITY BUILDERSC00859058 Joint fundraising participantKEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESSC00845826
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 2010377Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
GROW THE MAJORITY CAC00866491 Joint fundraising participantKEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESSC00845826
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1762678Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
CALIFORNIA VICTORY FUND 2024C00880880 Joint fundraising participantKEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESSC00845826
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1788637Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
KEVIN LINCOLN VICTORY FUNDC00886341 Joint fundraising participantKEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESSC00845826
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1814339Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
DEFEND OUR MAJORITYC00895821 Joint fundraising participantKEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESSC00845826
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 2010386Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
MAGA MAJORITY FUNDC00951764 Joint fundraising participantKEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESSC00845826
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 2007663Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
THE 218 FUNDC00963363 Joint fundraising participantKEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESSC00845826
FEC reportedObserved: Oct 11, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion. Observed in the FEC API; the public FEC registration page is linked for inspection.
KEVIN LINCOLN FOR CONGRESSC00845826 Authorized candidateLINCOLN, KEVIN J IIH4CA09093
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $39,832
Debts owed by committees: $25,559
Last report: TERMINATION REPORT

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hash1c0cd3be0ef115949e340a8b63d5bb5a9b8c9fd3068b72f2ef416977c5753092

View official FEC record

LINCOLN, KEVIN J II

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Largest itemized receipts

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast