HILL, JAMES FRENCH

RepublicanFEC reportedRepublican candidate · U.S. House · Arkansas · District 2 · Election 2026 · IncumbentH4AR02141

Overview

Raised: $5.3Mvs $3.8M 2023–2024
Spent: $5.2Mvs $3.3M 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $1.5Mvs $1.4M 2023–2024
Debts owed: $0vs $0 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Chance of winning: 79%
Rating: Lean R
Predicted margin: R+4.3

VotePredictor gives French Hill a 79% chance of winning as of November 8, 2026. Based on 3 polls of the race, blended with its fundamentals.

French Hill’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	84%
Oct 1, 2026	85%
Oct 6, 2026	84%
Oct 10, 2026	84%
Oct 16, 2026	83%
Oct 22, 2026	85%
Oct 24, 2026	82%
Oct 25, 2026	82%
Oct 26, 2026	79%
Oct 27, 2026	82%
Oct 28, 2026	79%
Oct 29, 2026	82%
Oct 30, 2026	79%
Oct 31, 2026	82%
Nov 1, 2026	79%
Nov 2, 2026	82%
Nov 3, 2026	82%
Nov 6, 2026	80%
Nov 7, 2026	77%
Nov 8, 2026	79%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review indicators

2 open

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Nov 5, 2026 · Index refreshed: Nov 5, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Nov 5, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).

0 receipt eligibility · 0 integrity · 2 fundraising patterns

Fundraising pattern for review →Cluster total: $49,000
Multiple reported donors associated with the same normalized employer gave to this recipient on one date. Repeated amounts and concentration within the loaded cycle warrant a review of possible fundraising activity. The pattern does not establish a bundler, coordination or wrongdoing.
Evidence date: Dec 1, 2025
Fundraising pattern for review →Cluster total: $17,000
Multiple reported donors associated with the same normalized employer gave to this recipient on one date. Repeated amounts and concentration within the loaded cycle warrant a review of possible fundraising activity. The pattern does not establish a bundler, coordination or wrongdoing.
Evidence date: Oct 28, 2025

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

View all 2 open indicators →

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Arkansas · District 2
Reported party: Republican
Election year: 2026
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: FRENCH HILL FOR ARKANSAS (C00551275)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding French Hill? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$2.2M
Unitemized individual contributions$36.8K
Other committees$1.8M
Party committees$5,500
Transfers from affiliates$1.2M
Other receipts$4,005

Top contributors

TEAM HILLRepublicanInferred from FEC-reported participants$1.2M13 contributions
WAGNER HILL VICTORY FUNDRepublicanInferred from FEC-reported participants$32.3K2 contributions

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$4.4M
Contribution refunds$46.7K
Other disbursements$731.7K

Largest transfers and contributions to committees

AMERICAN ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIRS COMMITTEE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEEMixed activity · 46% Democratic / 54% RepublicanInferred from activity$16.9K

All distributions →

Largest operating payments

50+1 CONSULTING LLC$200KMEDIA BUY · Jan 18, 2026
THE OORBEEK MEMMOTT GROUP$84.5KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Aug 7, 2025
MAJORITY STRATEGIES$81.6KONLINE ADVERTISING · Mar 11, 2026
MAJORITY STRATEGIES$67.3KONLINE ADVERTISING · Feb 9, 2026
MAJORITY STRATEGIES$51.2KONLINE ADVERTISING · Mar 12, 2026

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Jan 25	$9,150	$50,000
Feb 25	$107,950	$0
Mar 25	$577,235	$0
Apr 25	$25,100	$0
May 25	$65,400	$0
Jun 25	$323,297	$200,000
Jul 25	$34,250	$0
Aug 25	$85,750	$0
Sep 25	$401,288	$113,000
Oct 25	$101,475	$0
Nov 25	$76,802	$0
Dec 25	$335,754	$245,500
Jan 26	$39,665	$0
Feb 26	$70,865	$0
Mar 26	$233,314	$67,000
Apr 26	$45,240	$4,000
May 26	$68,615	$0
Jun 26	$326,643	$63,777

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Arkansas · District 2
Party affiliation: Republican
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: PO BOX 7841 · LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas, 72217
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

TEAM HILLC00773903 Joint fundraising participantFRENCH HILL FOR ARKANSASC00551275
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1593784Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
LEAN FORWARD AMERICAC00930396 Joint fundraising participantFRENCH HILL FOR ARKANSASC00551275
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1930604Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
WAGNER HILL VICTORY FUNDC00938449 Joint fundraising participantFRENCH HILL FOR ARKANSASC00551275
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1945529Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
FRENCH HILL FOR ARKANSASC00551275 Authorized candidateHILL, JAMES FRENCHH4AR02141
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
FRENCH HILL FOR ARKANSASC00551275 Connected organizationTEAM HILLReported name only · no identity match assumed
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 6, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC committee master: reported connected organization / affiliated committee name. This name-only field does not establish an entity identity match. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
IN THE ARENA PACC00623512 Leadership PAC sponsorHILL, JAMES FRENCHH4AR02141
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1950198Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $46,728
Debts owed by committees: $0
Last report: PRE-GENERAL

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hashb6d07553efae573ef6207753f790e32f1b1a5494fc5e1097acfdc32788c0cfe8

View official FEC record

HILL, JAMES FRENCH

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest transfers and contributions to committees

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast