COLE, TOM

RepublicanFEC reportedRepublican candidate · U.S. House · Oklahoma · District 4 · Election 2026 · IncumbentH2OK04055

Overview

Raised: $4.3Mvs $5.6M 2023–2024
Spent: $3.7Mvs $5M 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $2.4Mvs $1.8M 2023–2024
Debts owed: $0vs $0 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Chance of winning: 99%
Rating: Safe R
Predicted margin: R+26.0

VotePredictor gives Tom Cole a 99% chance of winning as of November 1, 2026. No polls of the race: based on the district's lean, incumbency and the national environment, with published race ratings.

Tom Cole’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	99%
Nov 1, 2026	99%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review indicators

4 open

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Oct 18, 2026 · Index refreshed: Oct 18, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Oct 18, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).

1 receipt eligibility · 1 integrity · 2 fundraising patterns

Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $224,298
KEY & ASSOCIATES received 50.2% of positive itemized operating spending in COLE FOR CONGRESS's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Sep 22, 2025
Fundraising pattern for review →Cluster total: $30,050
Multiple reported donors associated with the same normalized employer gave to this recipient on one date. Repeated amounts and concentration within the loaded cycle warrant a review of possible fundraising activity. The pattern does not establish a bundler, coordination or wrongdoing.
Evidence date: Mar 23, 2026
Fundraising pattern for review →Cluster total: $22,500
Multiple reported donors associated with the same normalized employer gave to this recipient on one date. Repeated amounts and concentration within the loaded cycle warrant a review of possible fundraising activity. The pattern does not establish a bundler, coordination or wrongdoing.
Evidence date: Jun 23, 2025
LLC or partnership eligibility →Associated amount: $3,500
Reported contributor appears to be an LLC or partnership. Verify permissible tax status, written eligibility notice, member or partner attribution, and contribution limits.
Evidence date: Apr 7, 2026

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

View all 4 open indicators →

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Oklahoma · District 4
Reported party: Republican
Election year: 2026
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: COLE FOR CONGRESS (C00379735)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Tom Cole? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$2.1M
Unitemized individual contributions$118.9K
Other committees$1.8M
Transfers from affiliates$149.2K
Other receipts$48.5K

Top contributors

COLE COMBINED COMMITTEERepublicanInferred from FEC-reported participants$146.6K3 contributions
MASSEY, GREG L. MR.RepublicanDerived from contributions$14K2 contributions
RAINBOLT, DAVID E. MR.

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$3.7M
Contribution refunds$3,902
Other disbursements$2,000

Largest operating payments

MEDIA AD VENTURES$242.1KMEDIA BUY · May 6, 2026
KEY & ASSOCIATES$138.8KPAYMENT: SEE BELOW · Jan 6, 2025
KEY & ASSOCIATES$112.4KPAYMENT: SEE BELOW · Apr 1, 2025
KEY & ASSOCIATES$103.1KPAYMENT: SEE BELOW · Jul 9, 2025
NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE$100KTRANSFER OF EXCESS FUNDS · May 1, 2026
KEY & ASSOCIATES$90KPAYMENT: SEE BELOW · Aug 21, 2025
NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE$89.5KTRANSFER OF EXCESS FUNDS · Feb 11, 2025
NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE$85KTRANSFER OF EXCESS FUNDS · Jun 24, 2025

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Dec 24	$42,193	$0
Jan 25	$59,703	$0
Feb 25	$92,891	$0
Mar 25	$240,521	$0
Apr 25	$101,886	$0
May 25	$148,182	$0
Jun 25	$245,859	$0
Jul 25	$109,120	$0
Aug 25	$144,829	$0
Sep 25	$67,526	$0
Oct 25	$46,070	$0
Nov 25	$22,714	$0
Dec 25	$78,653	$0
Jan 26	$50,132	$0
Feb 26	$153,575	$0
Mar 26	$183,308	$0
Apr 26	$126,301	$0
May 26	$102,663	$0
Jun 26	$68,957	$0

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Oklahoma · District 4
Party affiliation: Republican
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: PO BOX 722256 · NORMAN, Oklahoma, 73070
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

COLE COMBINED COMMITTEEC00438481 Joint fundraising participantCOLE FOR CONGRESSC00379735
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 307910Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
2003 VICTORY FUNDC00905778 Joint fundraising participantCOLE FOR CONGRESSC00379735
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1893484Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
COLE COMBINED COMMITTEEC00438481 Associated candidateCOLE, TOMH2OK04055
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
COLE FOR CONGRESSC00379735 Authorized candidateCOLE, TOMH2OK04055
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
COLE FOR CONGRESSC00379735 Connected organizationCOLE COMBINED COMMITTEEReported name only · no identity match assumed
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 6, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC committee master: reported connected organization / affiliated committee name. This name-only field does not establish an entity identity match. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
CONSERVATIVE OPPORTUNITY LEADERSHIP AND ENTERPRISE PACC00404392 Leadership PAC sponsorCOLE, TOMH2OK04055
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1741748Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $3,902
Debts owed by committees: $0
Last report: PRE-GENERAL

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hash179161b660c9e6ea34fa16795f31bc3d09b86bb4eb94dcc3494a211e718dd74f

View official FEC record

COLE, TOM

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast