LYNCH, STEPHEN

DemocraticFEC reportedDemocratic candidate · U.S. House · Massachusetts · District 8 · Election 2026 · IncumbentH2MA09072

Overview

Raised: $1.1Mvs $710.1K 2023–2024
Spent: $1.6Mvs $1M 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $494Kvs $1.1M 2023–2024
Debts owed: $0vs $0 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Chance of winning: 99%
Rating: Safe D
Predicted margin: D+37.7

VotePredictor gives Stephen Lynch a 99% chance of winning as of October 29, 2026. No polls of the race: based on the district's lean, incumbency and the national environment, with published race ratings.

Stephen Lynch’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	99%
Oct 30, 2026	99%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review · No open linked indicators

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Oct 18, 2026 · Index refreshed: Oct 18, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Oct 18, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).

No open indicators are linked in the published index. This is not a compliance clearance.

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Massachusetts · District 8
Reported party: Democratic
Election year: 2026
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: STEPHEN LYNCH FOR CONGRESS (C00366948)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Stephen Lynch? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$589.2K
Unitemized individual contributions$32.6K
Other committees$415.5K
Other receipts$12.2K

Top contributors

AMERICAN CRYSTAL SUGAR COMPANYMixed activity · 53% Democratic / 44% Republican · 3% unclassifiedInferred from activity$10K2 contributions
KARA, HENRY G.DemocraticDerived from contributions$8,0005 contributions
ARCARI, GIUSEPPE A.

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$1.6M
Contribution refunds$4,300
Other disbursements$53K

Largest operating payments

TRILOGY INTERACTIVE LLC$302KADVERTISING · Jul 9, 2026
TRILOGY INTERACTIVE LLC$149KADVERTISING · Jul 1, 2026
TRILOGY INTERACTIVE LLC$132.9KADVERTISING · Aug 6, 2026
GBAO$46.6KPOLLING · Apr 2, 2026
CONNOLLY PRINTING$26.4KPRINTING · Aug 11, 2026
TROPICULTURE$19.1KPLANTS FOR MOTHER'S DAY · May 14, 2026
TROPICULTURE$18.7KPLANTS FOR MOTHER'S DAY · May 29, 2025
KC STRATEGIES$16.5KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Apr 1, 2025
CONNOLLY PRINTING$15.1K

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Feb 25	$3,750	$0
Mar 25	$6,000	$0
Apr 25	$53,450	$0
May 25	$18,750	$50,000
Jun 25	$10,000	$0
Jul 25	$7,000	$0
Sep 25	$5,300	$0
Oct 25	$4,100	$0
Nov 25	$13,975	$1,000
Dec 25	$35,550	$0
Jan 26	$9,950	$0
Feb 26	$42,600	$0
Mar 26	$66,200	$0
Apr 26	$72,525	$0
May 26	$31,350	$2,000
Jun 26	$90,650	$0
Jul 26	$43,800	$0
Aug 26	$10,025	$0

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Massachusetts · District 8
Party affiliation: Democratic
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: 169 W 8TH ST · SOUTH BOSTON, Massachusetts, 02127
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

STEPHEN LYNCH FOR CONGRESSC00366948 Authorized candidateLYNCH, STEPHENH2MA09072
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
COMMON SENSE DEMOCRAT PACC00491142 Leadership PAC sponsorLYNCH, STEPHENH2MA09072
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1183750Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $4,300
Debts owed by committees: $0
Last report: PRE-GENERAL

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hash0ab29f7d8ab5e392f0151768d19c7b880042e6b98696908b6c54abcc51e28f9b

View official FEC record

LYNCH, STEPHEN

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast