MASSIE, THOMAS H.

RepublicanFEC reportedRepublican candidate · U.S. House · Kentucky · District 4 · Election 2026 · IncumbentH2KY04121

Overview

Raised: $8.9Mvs $1.3M 2023–2024
Spent: $9.3Mvs $690.2K 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $473.6Kvs $907K 2023–2024
Debts owed: $0vs $0 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Sep 30, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Rating: Safe R
Predicted margin: R+29.3

VotePredictor forecasts this race between Melissa Strange (D) and Ed Gallrein (R) as of November 11, 2026, giving the Republican a 99% chance. Thomas Massie is not one of the two candidates it forecasts. No polls of the race: based on the district's lean, incumbency and the national environment, with published race ratings.

The Republican’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	99%
Nov 11, 2026	99%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review indicators

20 open

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Nov 5, 2026 · Index refreshed: Nov 5, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Nov 5, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Nov 5, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Nov 5, 2026).

17 receipt eligibility · 3 integrity · 0 fundraising patterns

Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $2,678,910
NATIONAL AD PLACEMENT received 83.6% of positive itemized operating spending in THOMAS MASSIE FOR CONGRESS's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Mar 30, 2026
Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $2,212,687
NATIONAL AD PLACEMENT received 72.0% of positive itemized operating spending in THOMAS MASSIE FOR CONGRESS's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: May 19, 2026
Operating expenditures concentrated at one payee →Associated amount: $346,144
NATIONAL AD PLACEMENT received 71.0% of positive itemized operating spending in THOMAS MASSIE FOR CONGRESS's report. This is a concentration pattern for review.
Evidence date: Sep 10, 2025
Foreign-address eligibility →Associated amount: $3,500
The filing uses FEC foreign-address code ZZ. A foreign address does not establish foreign-national status; verify eligibility without inferring citizenship from geography.
Evidence date: May 17, 2026

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

View all 20 open indicators →

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Kentucky · District 4
Reported party: Republican
Election year: 2026
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: THOMAS MASSIE FOR CONGRESS (C00509729)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Thomas Massie? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$5.4M
Unitemized individual contributions$3.3M
Other committees$116.8K
Candidate contributions$7

Top contributors

BRUNNER, JOHNRepublicanDerived from contributions$42.5K7 contributions
HANCOCK, BRYCE15% Democratic / 85% RepublicanDerived from contributions$28.8K16 contributions
GRAHAM, PAUL

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$9M
Contribution refunds$280.6K
Other disbursements$8,000

Largest operating payments

NATIONAL AD PLACEMENT$878KMEDIA BUY · Jan 16, 2026
NATIONAL AD PLACEMENT$751.1KMEDIA PRODUCTION/MEDIA · May 11, 2026
NATIONAL AD PLACEMENT$414.4KMEDIA PRODUCTION/MEDIA · May 11, 2026
NATIONAL AD PLACEMENT$398.5KMEDIA BUY · Feb 13, 2026
NATIONAL AD PLACEMENT$366.7KMEDIA BUY · May 15, 2026
NATIONAL AD PLACEMENT$333.5KMEDIA PRODUCTION/MEDIA · Apr 7, 2026
NATIONAL AD PLACEMENT$324.4KMEDIA PRODUCTION/MEDIA · Mar 30, 2026
NATIONAL AD PLACEMENT$304.3KMEDIA PRODUCTION/MEDIA · Mar 23, 2026

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Jan 25	$2,650	$0
Feb 25	$3,200	$0
Mar 25	$235,133	$0
Apr 25	$9,150	$0
May 25	$84,500	$0
Jun 25	$260,592	$2,000
Jul 25	$117,829	$0
Aug 25	$84,586	$0
Sep 25	$334,671	$0
Oct 25	$162,133	$0
Nov 25	$138,771	$0
Dec 25	$82,181	$0
Jan 26	$196,893	$0
Feb 26	$499,507	$0
Mar 26	$820,743	$0
Apr 26	$503,733	$0
May 26	$1,822,395	$0
Jun 26	$18,019	$0

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Kentucky · District 4
Party affiliation: Republican
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: PO BOX 72821 · NEWPORT, Kentucky, 41072
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

TRANSPORTATION TRUST FUNDC00834739 Joint fundraising participantTHOMAS MASSIE FOR CONGRESSC00509729
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1916719Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
THOMAS MASSIE FOR CONGRESSC00509729 Authorized candidateMASSIE, THOMAS H.H2KY04121
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
THOMAS MASSIE FOR CONGRESSC00509729 Connected organizationTRANSPORTATION TRUST FUNDReported name only · no identity match assumed
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 6, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC committee master: reported connected organization / affiliated committee name. This name-only field does not establish an entity identity match. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
MAKING A SENSIBLE SHIFT IN ELECTIONS PACC00563429 Leadership PAC sponsorMASSIE, THOMAS H.H2KY04121
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1880858Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026
Contribution refunds: $280,598
Debts owed by committees: $0
Last report: OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hash9bb7df2e7af0348d351255ae21d9797a82b21913e05fd66d24ae9645447c31bb

View official FEC record

MASSIE, THOMAS H.

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast