TOKUDA, JILL NAOMI

DemocraticFEC reportedDemocratic candidate · U.S. House · Hawaii · District 2 · Election 2026 · IncumbentH2HI02581

Overview

Raised: $1Mvs $1M 2023–2024
Spent: $1Mvs $706.8K 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $487Kvs $483.4K 2023–2024
Debts owed: $0vs $0 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Chance of winning: 99%
Rating: Safe D
Predicted margin: D+34.4

VotePredictor gives Jill Naomi Tokuda a 99% chance of winning as of November 3, 2026. No polls of the race: based on the district's lean, incumbency and the national environment, with published race ratings.

Jill Naomi Tokuda’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	99%
Nov 3, 2026	99%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review · No open linked indicators

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Oct 18, 2026 · Index refreshed: Oct 18, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Oct 18, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).

No open indicators are linked in the published index. This is not a compliance clearance.

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Hawaii · District 2
Reported party: Democratic
Election year: 2026
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: TOKUDA FOR HAWAII (C00813758)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Jill Naomi Tokuda? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$641.9K
Unitemized individual contributions$92.1K
Other committees$244.3K
Transfers from affiliates$684

Top contributors

PICKARD, ELISSA M.DemocraticDerived from contributions$7,5004 contributions
PICKARD, JOSEPH GDemocraticDerived from contributions$7,5004 contributions
BILLS, STEVEN

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$702.2K
Contribution refunds$19.8K
Other disbursements$260.4K

Largest operating payments

PACIFIC CAMPAIGN HOUSE$25KADVERTISING - ONLINE · Jan 27, 2026
LEHUA RESTAURANT$12.2KCATERING · Mar 10, 2026
BLUE WAVE POLITICAL PARTNERS$12KDIGITAL CONSULTING · May 21, 2026
KAIWI'ULA STRATEGIES$8,234DIGITAL CONSULTING · Apr 6, 2026
DOYLE PRINTING & OFFSET CO.$6,785PRINTING · Apr 3, 2026
DOYLE PRINTING & OFFSET CO.$6,335PRINTING · Aug 21, 2025
BLUE WAVE POLITICAL PARTNERS$5,268COMPLIANCE CONSULTING · Aug 7, 2025
AKI, JACOB$5,061REIMBURSEMENT- SEE BELOW · Jun 11, 2026

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Data

Month	Raised	Spent
Jan 25	$670	$172,000
Feb 25	$9,415	$5,000
Mar 25	$54,430	$3,186
Apr 25	$4,955	$150
May 25	$21,195	$1,000
Jun 25	$62,263	$0
Jul 25	$2,997	$0
Aug 25	$9,782	$0
Sep 25	$12,745	$5,000
Oct 25	$24,871	$2,500
Nov 25	$27,007	$0
Dec 25	$80,262	$1,000
Jan 26	$26,572	$1,000
Feb 26	$51,749	$0
Mar 26	$75,762	$5,000
Apr 26	$34,941	$2,500
May 26	$20,483	$8,600
Jun 26	$21,501	$3,133
Jul 26	$11,707	$25,000

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Hawaii · District 2
Party affiliation: Democratic
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: 45-208 WENA STREET · KANEOHE, Hawaii, 96744
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

HIRONO TOKUDA VICTORYC00816215 Joint fundraising participantTOKUDA FOR HAWAIIC00813758
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1598029Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
BLUE TO THE FUTUREC00826123 Joint fundraising participantTOKUDA FOR HAWAIIC00813758
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1632824Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
TOKUDA FOR HAWAIIC00813758 Authorized candidateTOKUDA, JILL NAOMIH2HI02581
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
TOKUDA FOR HAWAIIC00813758 Connected organizationHIRONO TOKUDA VICTORYReported name only · no identity match assumed
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 6, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC committee master: reported connected organization / affiliated committee name. This name-only field does not establish an entity identity match. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
OHANA PACC00903476 Leadership PAC sponsorTOKUDA, JILL NAOMIH2HI02581
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1890254Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $19,750
Debts owed by committees: $0
Last report: PRE-GENERAL

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hashe7dc972a652ca77bb7d4734f9f95d9cf2bd43c1cf5bc6872b034edead372f256

View official FEC record

TOKUDA, JILL NAOMI

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast