KELLY, GEORGE J JR

RepublicanFEC reportedRepublican candidate · U.S. House · Pennsylvania · District 16 · Election 2026 · IncumbentH0PA03271

Overview

Raised: $1.4Mvs $1.7M 2023–2024
Spent: $1.4Mvs $1.5M 2023–2024
Cash on hand: $1Mvs $1M 2023–2024
Debts owed: $90Kvs $95K 2023–2024

OpenFEC processed candidate totals through Oct 14, 2026, across every authorized committee; figures change when amended reports are filed.

Raised is total receipts and Spent is total disbursements as reported for the candidate's authorized committees together; both can include transfers, loans and refunds. Cash on hand and debts are the balances at the end of the last report. The comparison is the same figure for 2023–2024.

Race forecast

Chance of winning: 99%
Rating: Safe R
Predicted margin: R+16.5

VotePredictor gives Mike Kelly a 99% chance of winning as of November 3, 2026. No polls of the race: based on the district's lean, incumbency and the national environment, with published race ratings.

Mike Kelly’s chance of winning

Data

Date	Chance of winning
Sep 25, 2026	99%
Nov 3, 2026	99%

As VotePredictor published it each day since September 25, 2026, including changes to its model.

Forecast by VotePredictor , updated daily. Its probabilities stay between 1% and 99%; no race is called before it is decided.

Compliance review indicators

1 open

Automated review indicators, not findings of a violation. Exact reported records are linked; identity is not independently verified. Reported lobbyist-bundling disclosures are not counted as issues.

Latest cycle-wide scan: Oct 18, 2026 · Index refreshed: Oct 18, 2026. Coverage is limited to loaded records and implemented checks.

Scan coverage and freshness

Receipt eligibility: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).
Integrity: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check succeeded (Oct 18, 2026).
Fundraising patterns: last successful scan Oct 18, 2026 · latest scheduled check skipped (Oct 18, 2026).

0 receipt eligibility · 1 integrity · 0 fundraising patterns

Financial integrity review →Associated amount: $0
The FEC issued 1 notice(s) to MIKE KELLY FOR CONGRESS about reports it had not filed, most recently on 2026-06-23, and no filing covering those periods appears in the loaded archive.
Evidence date: Jun 23, 2026

Across the cycle, some findings could not be linked safely to entities; ambiguous identities are withheld.

View all 1 open indicators →

Candidate & race

Office & constituency: U.S. House · Pennsylvania · District 16
Reported party: Republican
Election year: 2026
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Principal campaign committee: MIKE KELLY FOR CONGRESS (C00474189)

The principal campaign committee is the reported connection to this candidate. Transaction details below cover that committee; candidate-wide totals can also cover other authorized committees.

Money in

Who's funding Mike Kelly? Read the article →

Sources

Itemized individual contributions$328.7K
Unitemized individual contributions$4,431
Other committees$1.1M
Other receipts$0

Top contributors

MULLEN, NICOLA11% Democratic / 88% Republican · 1% unclassifiedDerived from contributions$8,1664 contributions
ANDERSON, DOUGLAS D.RepublicanDerived from contributions$7,0002 contributions
BARENSFELD, DAVID E.

Money out

Spending by kind

Operating expenditures$1M
Contribution refunds$584
Other disbursements$388.4K

Largest operating payments

TERRA DAVIS CONSULTING$37.5KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Jul 22, 2025
MIKE KELLY CHEVROLET INC.$37.4KCAMPAIGN CAR · Jun 12, 2026
TERRA DAVIS CONSULTING$24.7KEVENT CATERING · Jun 12, 2026
TERRA DAVIS CONSULTING$23.8KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · May 20, 2026
TERRA DAVIS CONSULTING$20.3KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Feb 26, 2026
TERRA DAVIS CONSULTING$20.2KEVENT CATERING/SITE RENTAL/TRAVEL · Dec 24, 2025
LAUREL VALLEY GOLF CLUB$19.6KEVENT CATERING/SITE RENTAL · Jan 8, 2026
TERRA DAVIS CONSULTING$19KFUNDRAISING CONSULTING · Jun 2, 2025

Over time

Itemized receipts and reported spending by month

Explore by day, month or cycle, and compare cycles by party

Follow the activity

Financial timeline

2025–2026 election cycle · dated records

Explore the timing, volume, and size of reported activity.

Money network · top contributors and recipients as a graph

Records

Registration

Office sought: U.S. House
State / district: Pennsylvania · District 16
Party affiliation: Republican
Race status: Incumbent
Candidate status: Current candidate
Election year: 2026
Registration snapshot cycle: 2025–2026
Cycles loaded: 2026, 2024
Registered address: 239 W PEARL ST · BUTLER, Pennsylvania, 16001
Compliance screening: View review flags

Relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Registration evidence · 2025–2026

Reported relationships are not contributions or transfers. They do not establish that any money changed hands. The reporting committee and related entity are shown separately. Only loaded relationship types are shown; this is not a complete organization chart.

7TH INNING STRETCHC00884783 Joint fundraising participantMIKE KELLY FOR CONGRESSC00474189
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1806786Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.
MIKE KELLY FOR CONGRESSC00474189 Authorized candidateKELLY, GEORGE J JRH0PA03271
FEC reportedLoaded: Sep 7, 2026Official FEC source ↗
Cycle-specific FEC candidate–committee linkage. The date is local ingestion, not the original filing date.
KEEP AMERICA ROLLINGC00524603 Leadership PAC sponsorKELLY, GEORGE J JRH0PA03271
FEC reportedObserved: Sep 12, 2026Registration filing: 1924680Official FEC source ↗
Current registration observation; not a historical filing-date assertion.

FEC-reported relationships

Loading registration relationships…

Filings

All reports filed with the FEC ↗

Reconciliation

Coverage: Jan 1, 2025 to Oct 14, 2026
Contribution refunds: $584
Debts owed by committees: $90,000
Last report: PRE-GENERAL

Source and provenance

Source agencyFederal Election Commission

Local row ingestedSep 6, 2026

Source row hashca623c36e196682efca99ba311f3755cbacebfdba933f142e7f5de9e5d496561

View official FEC record

Month	Raised	Spent
Jan 25	$1,550	$0
Feb 25	$14,025	$0
Mar 25	$7,500	$0
Apr 25	$36,230	$83,000
May 25	$6,300	$1,000
Jun 25	$27,000	$0
Jul 25	$9,500	$0
Aug 25	$11,000	$0
Sep 25	$33,000	$0
Oct 25	$5,250	$0
Nov 25	$7,850	$0
Dec 25	$18,750	$0
Jan 26	$16,500	$0
Feb 26	$20,875	$0
Mar 26	$16,750	$0
Apr 26	$2,000	$0
May 26	$36,750	$0
Jun 26	$17,000	$0

KELLY, GEORGE J JR

Overview

Race forecast

Candidate & race

Money in

Sources

Top contributors

Money out

Spending by kind

Largest operating payments

Over time

Financial timeline

Records

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

FEC-reported relationships

Top employers

Top industries

Top states

Money network

Race forecast